000 AXNT20 KNHC 310605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ON TOP OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 17N23W. STRONG SHOWERS IN ONE CELL ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 18N24W. CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N56W 13N60W 8N61W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N56W 16N61W 14N64W 12N66W A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W FROM JAMAICA TO PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE AT THE COAST OF CUBA FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W...WHICH MAY BE RELATED OR NOT RELATED TO THIS WAVE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... 11N24W 7N38W 8N50W 12N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N24W 9N30W 9N36W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 27W AND 32W...AND FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 39W AND 55W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N53W IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 23N56W...ALONG A SHEAR AXIS TO 24N73W... CONTINUING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. A DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH REACHES ITS BASE NEAR 30N58W. A COLD FRONT REACHES ITS SOUTHERNMOST POINT NEAR 33N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF THE 30N53W 24N73W TROUGH. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 24N73W-TO-STRAITS OF FLORIDA-TO-YUCATAN PENINSULA TROUGH... EAST OF 90W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CYCLONIC SOUTH OF 24N WEST OF 90W IN RESPONSE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CYCLONIC CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO THE LOWER VALLEY OF TEXAS TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 25N100W IN MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO A CYCLONIC CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER IS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS TO THE NORTH OF THE EASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ADDING DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW TO THE CONVECTIVE PROCESSES IN THE PRECIPITATION AREA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EASTWARD...CURVING TOWARD NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N56W 13N60W 8N61W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N56W 16N61W 14N64W 12N66W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 29N50W 27N62W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N85W...AND EVENTUALLY TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES NEAR 32N41W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 42W AND 43W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 30N24W TO CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. $$ MT