000 AXNT20 KNHC 301811 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST ABOUT 10 KT. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 18W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FURTHER S ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 18W-24W. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TODAY BEFORE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS TOMORROW. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N51W 14N54W 7N56W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE ENVELOPE OF SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N-21N BETWEEN 40W-64W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 55W-64W. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOW NOTED WITH THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 10N23W 7N35W 12N50W 10N63W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 24W-31W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 39W-42W...AND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 48W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO S TEXAS PRODUCING 10-15 KT SLY FLOW. THE SRN GULF S OF 25N HAS MOSTLY FAIR SKIES. AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND N FLORIDA FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 81W-86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER E TEXAS NEAR 31N94W. DIFFLUENT FLOW SE OF THE UPPER LOW IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE NW GULF FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 92W-94W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ANOTHER IS APPROACHING THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADE WINDS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA NEAR 7N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 77W-79W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N89W. DIFFLUENT FLOW SE OF THE UPPER LOW IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 81W-84W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS W OF 68W. EXPECT... CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO THE OTHER TROPICAL WAVE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A VERY LARGE 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N36W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 70W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. THREE OTHER UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N55W...31N40W ...AND 30N22W. A VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 17N42W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS S OF 27N E OF 50W. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E ATLANTIC DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA