000
AXNT20 KNHC 291100
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 15W/16W 
SOUTH OF 14N. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE 
NEAR 11N. THIS WAVE SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SOME SLOW 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 15 MPH. STRONG 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
10N BETWEEN 16W AND 20W. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N43W 12N45W 3N46W 
MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 16.5N48W. THIS WAVE MAY 
REACH THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS BY WEDNESDAY.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W SOUTH OF 
19N MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 16N 
BETWEEN 62W AND 70W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W SOUTH OF
21N MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA 
OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. SHOWERS ANYWHERE IN THIS VICINITY 
MAY BE RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND NOT THE TROPICAL WAVE.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR.

...THE ITCZ...
10N18W 8N25W 13N44W 9N53W 10N60W. STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 29W AND 31W...AND FROM
7N TO 10N BETWEEN 52W AND 54W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...AND FROM
7N TO 12N BETWEEN 39W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA EAST
OF 90W. A NEW CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N95W IN THE 
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W.
THIS PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF 
LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE UNFAVORABLE 
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY 
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LARGE ERUPTION OF THE SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO IN MONTSERRAT
HAS OCCURRED. PLEASE READ THE AFOS/WMO BULLETIN FVXX22 KNES
FOR MORE DETAILS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS 
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY 
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER NEAR
THE GULF OF URABA ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...STAYING SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. 
ANOTHER SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW 
SWEEPS FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST...SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN 
SUBSIDENCE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 27N66W 
TO THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA NEAR 22N77W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 28N60W TO 30N50W TO 30N40W. ISOLATED TO 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 50W 
AND 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N68W TO AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N71W TO THE WATERS JUST 
NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 
11N44W 23N40W TO 32N34W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES 
THROUGH 31N19W TO 27N19W TO 22N23W IS APPROACHING THE CANARY 
ISLANDS.

$$
MT