000 AXNT20 KNHC 290620 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 15W/16W SOUTH OF 14N. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. THIS WAVE SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 15 MPH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N41W 11N44W 3N44W MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. THIS WAVE MAY REACH THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS BY WEDNESDAY. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 15 KT. SHOWERS FROM FIVE HOURS AGO SOUTH OF 14N EAST OF 65W HAVE DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART LEAVING SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND DEBRIS CLOUDS. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. SHOWERS ANYWHERE IN THIS VICINITY MAY BE RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND NOT THE TROPICAL WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... 10N17W 8N26W 14N43W 9N52W 10N60W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ONE CLUSTER FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 28W AND 30W...AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...AND FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 39W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA. A NEW CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N95W IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE EAST OF 90W. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A LARGE ERUPTION OF THE SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO IN MONTSERRAT HAS OCCURRED. PLEASE READ THE AFOS/WMO BULLETIN FVXX22 KNES FOR MORE DETAILS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 16N WEST OF ONE CYCLONIC CENTER IS JUST WEST OF JAMAICA...AND A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER IS ABOUT 240 NM EAST OF THE FIRST CYCLONIC CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER NEAR THE GULF OF URABA ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...STAYING SOUTH OF A LINE FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. ANOTHER SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SWEEPS FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST...SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 27N66W TO THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA NEAR 22N77W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 26N55W TO 29N52W TO 31N50W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N68W TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N71W TO THE WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 13N45W 23N43W TO 32N35W.N UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N21W TO 27N21W TO 23N22W IS APPROACHING THE CANARY ISLANDS. $$ MT