000 AXNT20 KNHC 281100 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGES OF YESTERDAY AND IN CURRENT INFRARED IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N TO 21N BETWEEN 50W AND THE WAVE. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 22N55W TO 27N52W TO 31N46W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N56W 28N49W BEYOND 31N43W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. SHOWERS NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 75W AND 84W MAY BE RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND NOT THE TROPICAL WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... 11N15W 10N25W 11N37W 8N47W 12N55W 11N61W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 14W AND 15W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 10N22W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 13N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...AND FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 42W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA INTO WEST CENTRAL MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE FLOW IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ALSO MOVES AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND BECOMES CYCLONIC...MOVING TOWARD ONE DISTINCT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND 91W ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST. A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN AN AREA OF A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR 27N91W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST SOUTH OF CUBA AND JUST NORTHWEST OF JAMAICA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IT EVENTUALLY REACHES HONDURAS AND MAYBE EVEN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 70W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND PANAMA/COSTA RICA/THE REST OF NICARAGUA AND CURVES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER. A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE CYCLONIC CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PUSHING AWAY FROM THE U.S.A. EAST COAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH REACHES NEAR 30N77W. UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVES FROM JUST NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TOWARD A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 30N WEST OF 70W INCLUDING ACROSS PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS TOWARD CUBA. SHOWERS ALSO ARE ELSEWHERE BETWEEN A 31N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST TROUGH. SHOWERS ARE AROUND THE 31N62W CYCLONIC CENTER...AND AROUND A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 24N67W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 40W FROM 10N BEYOND 32N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N25W TO 23N26W. $$ MT