000 AXNT20 KNHC 271048 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS LARGE WAVE HAS AN ENVELOPE OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING THAT COVERS WELL OVER A 10 DEG AREA OF LONGITUDE. THIS CYCLONIC TURNING IS FOCUSED...VORTICITY MAX...ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 12N. DESPITE THE HIGH AMPLIFICATION...DEEP CONVECTION IS NEARLY ABSENT. TROPICAL WAVE IS TITLED ALONG 28N46W 8N49W MOVING W 10-15 KT. A WEAK 1014 MB LOW...CONSISTING OF ONLY A THIN SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS...IS ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 19N49W. A DISORGANIZED AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WELL N OF THE SFC LOW FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 46W-47W AND THIS IS BEING DRIVEN EVEN FARTHER AWAY BY SLY WINDS ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WAVE WILL SPLIT SOMETIME TODAY AND THE N BRANCH...WHICH EXHIBITS SOME MID-LEVEL TURNING...WILL LIKELY BE THE MORE ACTIVE PORTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WHILE LITTLE SIGNATURE IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE MIMIC TPW PRODUCT SHOWS A WEAK QUICK MOVING MOISTURE SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. THE INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER JET IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER HISPANIOLA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND CUBA. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 13N28W 10N34W 5N42W 6N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N E OF 16W AND WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 34W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG NE TO E MID TO UPPER FLOW...ON THE PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE CENTERED OVER W TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO...LIES N OF 24N. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS...SOME OF WHICH IS BEING DEEPENED TO SCATTERED TSTMS IN WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT AND UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONES NEAR S LOUISIANA N OF 28N BETWEEN 90W-93W AND NEAR THE W COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 25N-29N E OF 87W. WEAK UPPER TROUGHING LIES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DRAWING SOME MOISTURE ON ITS E SIDE OVER THE FAR E PART OF THE BAY AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AT THE SFC...WEAK 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N91W IS ALLOWING WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND ANTICYCLONIC ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WEAK PRES PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND CUBA ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW NELY UPPER JET SET UP BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH OVER HONDURAS AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ATLC WATERS NEAR 27N64W. A SMALLER UPPER LOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE SRN WINDWARDS DRAWING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ANTILLES S OF 14N AND DEEPER SHOWER ACTIVITY A COUPLE HUNDRED NM E OF TRINIDAD. ELSEWHERE...WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW WIDESPREAD DRY AIR WHICH IS SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY DEEP TSTM ACTIVITY...WITH EXCEPTION TO THE ITCZ CONVECTION WHICH SKIRTS THE SW WATERS S OF 10N. TRADE WINDS REMAIN STRONG OVER THE S CENTRAL WATERS BUT OTHERWISE WINDS ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE...ESPECIALLY LIGHT OVER THE NW CARIB. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N64W WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGHING EXTENDING SW ACROSS CUBA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 62W. MID-UPPER RIDGING IS THE GENERAL THEME ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ZONE WITH ONE HIGH CENTER NEAR 21N28W AND A SMALLER ONE NEAR 21N54W. S TO SE UPPER FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING 50W. BESIDES FOR AN AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE...MUCH OF THE ATLC IS DEVOID OF DEEP CLOUDINESS. AT THE SFC...THE ONLY STRONG AREAS OF WIND NOTED IN RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA IS NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES...DUE TO THE TIGHTENED PRES PATTERN BETWEEN THOSE LOW PRES FEATURES AND A 1027 MB BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH. $$ CANGIALOSI