000 AXNT20 KNHC 261103 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF DOLLY IS ABOUT 110 MILES/ 177 KM SOUTH OF EL PASO TEXAS NEAR 30.2N 106.2W AT 26/0900 UTC. IT IS MOVING NORTH 5 MPH. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE NEAR 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 30 MPH NORTHEAST OF THE REMNANT LOW CENTER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PART OF TEXAS. HIGHER WINDS ARE LIKELY IN ELEVATED TERRAIN. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. PLEASE READ THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KWNH FOR MORE DETAILS. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND SECTIONS OF ARIZONA. THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD SATURDAY INTO NEW MEXICO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...AND SECTIONS OF ARIZONA...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 18W AND 20W. THAT PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE ITCZ THAN TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/46W SOUTH OF 24N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 18.5N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUE TO BE MOVING WESTWARD ON TOP OF THIS WAVE. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 45W AND 46W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 48W. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... 14N17W 10N25W 9N36W 12N46W 7N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 25W AND 31W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 30W AND 41W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 53W AND 59W...TO THE SOUTH OF THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA ON TOP OF THE 44W/45W TROPICAL WAVE...AND THAT REACHES NEAR 10N55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 26N. CUT-OFF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...ONE OR TWO INDIVIDUAL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS...COVER THE AREA FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...SOUTH OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS PART OF THE TROUGH THAT WAS ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TWENTY FOUR HOURS AGO. IT HAS SEPARATED FROM THE MAIN TROUGH THAT STOPS SOMEWHERE NEAR 28N79W A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AN INTERIOR MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 19N99W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A FEW CELLS FROM 19N TO 20N UP AGAINST THE MEXICO COAST. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 65W... ON TOP OF DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD. THE DRY AIR NOW REACHES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WELL EAST OF 60W TO EASTERN HONDURAS AND ALONG 85W IN NICARAGUA. THE BASE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR SAINT CROIX. SOME CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ENTERS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ANOTHER BIT OF CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE BROAD ATLANTIC TROUGH ALSO REACHES THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ENOUGH TO START SOME SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN COASTAL HAITI. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS PUSHING WESTWARD TO 61W/62W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM GRENADA TO THE ISLANDS IN BETWEEN ST. KITTS AND NEVIS AND ANGUILLA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 34N BETWEEN 54W AND 70W. INDIVIDUAL CYCLONIC CENTERS ARE POSSIBLE INSIDE THE BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW. A SEPARATE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ALSO NEAR 27N72W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN THE AREA OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AND THE INDIVIDUAL 27N72W CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 31N27W TO 29N41W TO 22N45W NEAR THE 44W/45W TROPICAL WAVE...EVENTUALLY TO 10N55W. $$ MT