000 AXNT20 KNHC 260610 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF DOLLY IS 83 MILES/133 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PRESIDIO TEXAS NEAR 30.1N 105.5W AT 26/0300 UTC. IT IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 7 MPH WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH DURING SUNDAY. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE NEAR 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 30 MPH NORTHEAST OF THE DISTURBANCE CENTER ACROSS THE TEXAS BIG BEND. HIGHER WINDS ARE LIKELY IN ELEVATED TERRAIN. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. PLEASE READ THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KWNH FOR MORE DETAILS. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN AREA OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND REGION. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. THAT PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE ITCZ THAN TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W SOUTH OF 24N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 19N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUE TO BE MOVING WESTWARD ON TOP OF THIS WAVE. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 44W AND 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 47W. AN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... 14N17W 10N24W 8N37W 12N44W 7N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 25W AND 27W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 25W AND 40W. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION IS FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W...TO THE SOUTH OF THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA ON TOP OF THE 43W/44W TROPICAL WAVE...AND THAT REACHES NEAR 10N55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 26N. CUT-OFF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...ONE OR TWO INDIVIDUAL CENTERS... COVER THE AREA FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS PART OF THE TROUGH THAT WAS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TWENTY FOUR HOURS AGO AND NOW IT HAS SEPARATED FROM THE MAIN TROUGH THAT STOPS SOMEWHERE NEAR 28N79W A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AN INTERIOR MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 19N99W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WESTERN PART OF AND/OR JUST WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 65W... ON TOP OF DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD. THE DRY AIR NOW REACHES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WELL EAST OF 60W TO AT LEAST 81W. THE BASE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR SAINT CROIX. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS PUSHING WESTWARD TO 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM 40 NM NORTH OF TOBAGO TO GUADELOUPE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 34N BETWEEN 54W AND 70W. INDIVIDUAL CYCLONIC CENTERS ARE POSSIBLE INSIDE THE BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW. A SEPARATE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ALSO NEAR 27N72W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN THE AREA OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AND THE INDIVIDUAL 27N72W CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 31N27W TO 29N41W TO 22N45W NEAR THE 43W/44W TROPICAL WAVE...EVENTUALLY TO 10N55W. $$ MT