000 AXNT20 KNHC 250604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ABOUT 100 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LAREDO TEXAS...NEAR 28.4N 101.6W AT 25/0300 UTC. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. PLEASE READ THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KWNH FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO BETWEEN EAGLE PASS TEXAS/PIEDRAS NEGRAS MEXICO AND THE TEXAS BIG BEND NORTH OF 27N. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE IN TEXAS BETWEEN 98W AND 100W FROM 27N TO 30N...WEST OF A LINE FROM SAN ANTONIO TO MCALLEN...TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N36W 20N37W 15N38W 7N38W MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14.5N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 29N39W 23N43W. A SECOND TROUGH IS ALONG 16N43W 10N47W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 38W AND 39W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 21N BETWEEN 38W AND 42W. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING WITH THIS TROUGH HAS MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD ALREADY...FROM EL SALVADOR INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 16N89.5W IN EASTERN GUATEMALA PROBABLY IS MORE RELATED TO THE TROUGH THAN TO THE WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... 12N16W 9N22W 13N33W 10N46W 7N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 26W AND 27W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 37W AND 38W...FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 51W AND 52W...AND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY IS ON TOP OF INLAND NORTHERN MEXICO BETWEEN EAGLE PASS TEXAS AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. PRECIPITATION IN A BAND TO THE EAST OF THE DEPRESSION IS FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 98W AND 100W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO FLORIDA ABOUT HALFWAY IN BETWEEN TAMPA AND OCALA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N87W TO A 21N92W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER JUST WEST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE TROUGH...MOSTLY NORTH OF 26N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE AT THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE STATE OF FLORIDA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA FROM A 23N81W WESTERN CUBA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS HONDURAS/ GUATEMALA/EL SALVADOR TO A 12N90W EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO EASTERN CUBA. STRONG SHOWERS IN INDIVIDUAL PRECIPITATION CELLS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...UP AGAINST THE COASTS OF WESTERN COSTA RICA AND SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N68W JUST NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE EAST OF JAMAICA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 20N74W BEYOND 32N74W. ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 26N63W...TO 20N62W. THIS TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N40W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 22N43W TO 12N50W...ALSO SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE 36W/38W TROPICAL WAVE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. $$ MT