000 AXNT20 KNHC 232345 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE DOLLY IS LOCATED INLAND OVER EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS CENTERED NEAR 26.6N 98.0W AT 24/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 60 MILES... 95 KM...NORTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 976 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE EYE OF DOLLY MADE LANDFALL EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. WITH LANDFALL HAVING ALREADY OCCURRED...A CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST BUT DOLLY REMAINS A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING SYSTEM AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. MOST OF DOLLY'S CONVECTIVE CORE HAS MOVED INLAND BUT CONVECTIVE BANDS STILL REMAIN IN THE WRN GULF WATERS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 24N-29N W OF 95W. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N TO THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTLINE BETWEEN 89W-95W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W S OF 23N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD CIRCULATION WHICH REMAINS ELONGATED IN THE MID/LOW LEVELS. THE WAVE SHOWS UP VERY WELL ON THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS WHERE A LARGE AMPLITUDE MOISTURE SURGE IS OBSERVED. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 350 NM WITH ONLY A VERY SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 16N32W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS BENEATH STRONG TO MODERATE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS GUYANA. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO WESTERN PANAMA ALONG 82W AND IS MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 79W-86W...WHICH INCLUDES HONDURAS...NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA IS ALSO ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 13N20W 10N27W 7N32W 6N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 16W-22W. SIMILAR CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG THE W AFRICAN COAST WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 5N7W TO 12N16W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 45W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... HURRICANE DOLLY REMAINS THE FOCUS ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR DETAILS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH DOLLY EXTENDS UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS IS AIDING IN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS IS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO SAINT PETERSBURG AND FORT MYERS DUE LARGELY IN PART TO THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD AND ENVELOPS THE ERN GULF GIVING THE AREA LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLY OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE DOLLY COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 81W. BROAD COMPLEX UPPER TROUGHING IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS A VERY NARROW TROUGH S OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA AND JAMAICA PRODUCING MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ON AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N59W. S-SW FLOW BETWEEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IS DRAWING SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NRN SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN ALONG 82W AND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THU. MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A PAIR OF 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ARE LOCATED NEAR 36N50W AND 35N45W EXTENDING A RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE ERN GULF. THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICS. BROAD AREA OF UPPER TROUGHING COVERS THE WRN ATLC AND EXTENDS S INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 67W-72W AND LIKELY THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 31N52W TO 24N56W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS INDICATE CYCLONIC TURNING AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 54W-56W. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY STABLE ATMOSPHERE ARE IN PLACE E OF 60W. A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IS WRAPPING AROUND THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR ERN ATLC. $$ HUFFMAN