000 AXNT20 KNHC 220625 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY AT 22/0600 UTC IS NEAR 23.2N 93.3W...OR ABOUT 278 NM/515 KM SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. DOLLY IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 16 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO PORT O'CONNOR. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. PLEASE MONITOR BULLETINS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE CENTER OF DOLLY SHOULD BE REALLY CLOSE TO THE WESTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE TO LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES/325 KM FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS AND LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL AT 22/0300 UTC IS NEAR 37.7N 69.8W OR ABOUT ABOUT 313 NM/580 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...AND ABOUT 500 NM/925 KM SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING NORTHEAST 14 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 89 NM/165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE WIND SPEEDS OF CRISTOBAL HAVE BECOME COMPARATIVELY SLOWER...AND MORE WEAKENING IS FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 35N TO 41N BETWEEN 67W AND 70W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W/18W SOUTH OF 21N...JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA...MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 15N ALONG THE WAVE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 19W/20W FROM 10N TO 21N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS OF 16N19W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 7N TO 18N BETWEEN 14W AND 21W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... 11N19W 6N30W 5N42W 8N53W 7N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 25W AND 33W...FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 36W AND 39W...AND FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 44W AND 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CURVES AWAY FROM DOLLY INTO GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 90W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM DOLLY CURVES FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 28N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER NEAR THE GULF OF URABA ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 21N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 71W/72W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE TROUGHS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR 16N90W IN GUATEMALA NEAR THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... T.S. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE EASTERN COAST OF THE U.S.A. ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 28N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N66W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N69W. A THIRD TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 21N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 30W AND 54W...AND FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N19W TO 27N23W. $$ MT