000 AXNT20 KNHC 211048 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL AT 21/0900 UTC IS CENTERED NEAR 36.1N 73.9W OR ABOUT 110 MILES...175 KM...NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MOVING NE AT 11 KT. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS OFFSHORE S OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 32N-36N BETWEEN 73W-76W. TROPICAL STORM DOLLY AT 21/0900 IS CENTERED NEAR 21.3N 87.4W OR ABOUT 150 MILES...240 KM...EAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO MOVING NW AT 13 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS OFFSHORE N OF THE CENTER OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 84W-88W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 17 KT. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE SOME MID LEVEL ROTATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 6N WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 68W/69W S OF 18N MOVING W 20 KT. ONLY ISOLATED LOW TOP SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE MAINLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 65W-70W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 9N35W 6N50W 6N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER A LARGE AREA ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 12W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 24W-29W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 34W-40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 43W-47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 7N-8N BETWEEN 56W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N92W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL DUE TO T.S. DOLLY. SEE ABOVE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 91W-94W DUE TO AN OUTER BAND OF T.S. DOLLY. OUTSIDE OF T.S. DOLLY...WINDS ARE PREDOMINATELY ONLY 5-10 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N92W MOVING W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO N OF T.S.DOLLY AT 25N85W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF. EXPECT DOLLY TO TRAVERSE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THEN PROCEED TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH STRONG CONVECTION AND INCREASING WIND VELOCITIES. CARIBBEAN SEA... T.S. DOLLY IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SEE ABOVE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION N OF THE CENTER. FURTHER S... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 81W-83W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 80W-86W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS. SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS VOID OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH LOW CLOUDS SWEEPING WESTWARD IN MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO T.S. DOLLY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N67W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS W OF 76W...AND OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT DOLLY AND THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE NW TOWARDS THE S TEXAS COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... T.S. CRISTOBAL IS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BRUSHING CAPE HATTERAS AND IS NO LONGER PRODUCING CONVECTION S OF 32N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N59W 29N63W 24N68W. A 1012 MB LOW IS ON THE TROUGH AXIS AT 29N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1027 HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES AT 37N35W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 30N50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 28N60W. AN LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 22N27W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 40W. EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW AT 29N63W TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA