000 AXNT20 KNHC 210605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL AT 21/0300 UTC IS CENTERED NEAR 35.2N 75.0W OR ABOUT 30 MILES... 45 KM...EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MOVING NE AT 8 KT. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS OFFSHORE S OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 32N-36N BETWEEN 73W-77W. TROPICAL STORM DOLLY AT 21/0300 IS CENTERED NEAR 19.6N 85.8W OR ABOUT 180 MILES...290 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 95 MILES...150 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO MOVING NW AT 12 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS OFFSHORE N OF THE CENTER OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 83W-87W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 17 KT. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE SOME MID LEVEL ROTATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 6N WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 66W S OF 18N IS MOVING W 20 KT. ONLY ISOLATED LOW TOP SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE MAINLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 64W-70W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 9N30W 6N50W 7N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 10W-13W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 18W-23W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 31W-39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 43W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N93W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL DUE TO T.S. DOLLY. SEE ABOVE. OUTSIDE OF DOLLY WINDS ARE PREDOMINATELY ONLY 5-10 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N92W MOVING W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO N OF DOLLY AT 25N85W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF. EXPECT DOLLY TO TRAVERSE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THEN PROCEED TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH STRONG CONVECTION AND INCREASING WIND VELOCITIES. CARIBBEAN SEA... T.S. DOLLY IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. THE SHORT TERM TRACK IS TOWARDS CANCUN MEXICO WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION N OF THE CENTER. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 86W-88W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 79W-81W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS. SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS VOID OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH LOW CLOUDS SWEEPING WESTWARD IN MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO DOLLY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N67W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS W OF 76W...AND OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT DOLLY AND THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... T.S. CRISTOBAL IS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BRUSHING CAPE HATTERAS AND IS NO LONGER PRODUCING CONVECTION S OF 32N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N55W 29N63W 25N65W 24N69W. A 1016 MB LOW IS ON THE TROUGH AXIS AT 29N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1029 HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 39N30W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 30N50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 28N60W. AN LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 22N27W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 40W. $$ FORMOSA