000 AXNT20 KNHC 210048 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...CORRECTED FOR SHIP CALL SIGN IN SECOND PARAGRAPH... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL AT 21/0000 UTC IS CENTERED NEAR 34.9N 75.4W OR ABOUT 55 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 20 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MOVING NNE AT 7 KT. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AS REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ALTHOUGH DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LOCATED OFFSHORE S OF THE CENTER FROM ONSLOW BAY ESE TO ABOUT 65 NM S OF CAPE HATTERAS AS INDICATED BY THE WILMINGTON AND MOREHEAD CITY WSR-88D SITES. TROPICAL STORM DOLLY AT 21/0000 IS CENTERED NEAR 19.3N 85.5W OR ABOUT 105 NM SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO MOVING NW AT 12 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DOLLY IS CONTINUING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW LEVEL BUT CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BECOMING VERY SYMMETRIC IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IS SPREADING OVER THE SE HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS N OF CUBA ABOUT 120 NM SW OF KEY WEST. A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN C6MN5 NEAR 23.5N 82.2W REPORTED 30 KT WINDS IN THIS OUTER RAIN BAND IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 17 KT. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE SOME MID LEVEL ROTATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 6N WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W S OF 18N IS MOVING W 20 KT. ONLY ISOLATED LOW TOP SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE MAINLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 60W-68W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE NOTED EARLIER ALONG 95W S OF 21N HAS MOVED W OF THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE MIATWDEP FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 10N23W 5N43W 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 18W-21W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 16W-23W... AND WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-34W AND 43W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... ALL EYES ARE ON THE GULF OF MEXICO AS T.S. DOLLY CHURNS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH OUTER RAINBANDS SPREADING ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA N OF CUBA AND THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 89W. REFER TO SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON DOLLY. WEAK NARROW UPPER RIDGE IN THE NW GULF BUT IS BEING PINCHED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS S INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH DRIER UPPER AIR NOTED AHEAD OF T.S. DOLLY. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE WAS ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N93W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR WITH SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN INCREASING NE FLOW OVER THE SOUTHER GULF. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE OVER A LARGER AREA OF THE SE GULF AS DOLLY APPROACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA... MAIN CONCERN FOR THE CARIBBEAN IS TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. OTHERWISE...THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA TO THE BORDER OF PANAMA/COSTA RICA GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAT OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AN NICARAGUA S OF 13N. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS VOID OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH LOW CLOUDS SWEEPING WESTWARD IN MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... T.S. CRISTOBAL IS BRUSHING CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA IS DRAWING SOME UPPER MOISTURE S OF T.S. CRISTOBAL OVER THE FAR W ATLC BUT WITH DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE...NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY. A VERY SMALL WEAK UPPER LOW IS IN THE W ATLC NEAR 27N64W WITH A 1018 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 28N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB LOW NEAR 31N56W SOUTHWEST TO THE FIRST LOW THEN ENDS NEAR 26N70W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND E ATLC IS UPPER RIDGE AND A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH THE AZORES SW TO 32N50W THEN W TO A 1022 MB HIGH NW OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N67W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR IS KEEPING MOST OF THE ATL FAIR THIS EVENING. $$ COBB