000 AXNT20 KNHC 201157 AAA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 ...UPDATE ON CRISTOBAL... TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL AT 20/1200 UTC IS NEAR 34.1N 76.8W OR ABOUT 35 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 90 NM SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING NE AT 5 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EVOLVE AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM THE WILMINGTON NC WSR-88D. CRISTOBAL IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM MOVES ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE CENTER FROM 31N-33N BETWEEN 77W-78W. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA AT 20/0900 UTC IS NEAR 48.5N 38.9W OR ABOUT 670 MILES...1080 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES 26 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BERTHA IS RETAINING TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY EVEN AS IT CONTINUES TO PLOW WELL NORTH OF 45 DEGREES LATITUDE AND MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS. BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 12 HOURS AND THEN BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER SYSTEM IN LESS THAN THREE DAYS. THUS FAR BERTHA'S LONG LIFE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAKES BERTHA BY SEVERAL DAYS THE LONGEST LIVED JULY TROPICAL CYCLONE. PRESENTLY THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 48N-50N BETWEEN 38W-40W. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 21N WITH AN ASSOCIATED GALE LOW NEAR 15N82W 1006 MB. GALE CONDITIONS ARE FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 77W-82W AS CONFIRMED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF JAMAICA FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 79W-83W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KT. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST ABOUT 12 KT. THE WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE ERN PACIFIC. ASSOCIATED 1006 MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE E PACIFIC NEAR 13N94W. HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF EL SALVADOR... GUATEMALA...AND SE MEXICO COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IN ADDITION... CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN THE E PACIFIC BASIN. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE ITCZ FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 30W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 17 KT. THIS WAVE IS SOMEWHAT LESS EVIDENT IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY THAN THE OTHER WAVES NOTED WITH ONLY AN INVERTED V SIGNATURE INDICATED IN THE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE AXIS ITSELF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 60W-65W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 10N25W 7N40W 10N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 10W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 20W-25W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 48W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N85W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W TO E TEXAS. WINDS ARE PREDOMINATELY SELY 5-10 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 95W-98W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 30N100W PRODUCING SLY FLOW OVER THE W GULF W OF 93W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N84W MOVING W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE E GULF AND W CUBA E OF 91W. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE OVER W CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 24 HOURS DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE PRESENTLY OVER W CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION S MEXICO...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE PRESENTLY ALONG 94W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WITH GALE FORCE WINDS IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 74W-77W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER W CUBA IS PRODUCING CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... T.S. CRISTOBAL IS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND IS NO LONGER PRODUCING CONVECTION OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA. A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N66W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N55W 28N60W 27N63W. A 1016 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED ON THE TROUGH AT 27N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH...AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-28N BETWEEN 61W-64W. A 1029 HIGH IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AZORES NEAR 48N20W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 40N30W 34N40W 31N50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N64W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 27N50W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 30W. $$ FORMOSA