000 AXNT20 KNHC 191810 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA AT 19/1500 UTC IS NEAR 43.1N 45.4W MOVING NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES 22 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BERTHA IS STILL A HURRICANE EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOW WELL NORTH OF 40 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND MOVING OVER RATHER CHILLY SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BERTHA'S LONG LIFE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABLY IS NEARING ITS END SINCE IT IS GAINING LATITUDE SO QUICKLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR BERTHA TO BE AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND THEN BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER SYSTEM IN LESS THAN THREE DAYS. TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL JUST FORMED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA DURING THE LAST HOUR. ITS CENTER AT 19/1800 UTC IS NEAR 32.8N 78.3W OR ABOUT 100 MILES/160 KM EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 225 MILES/365 KM SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING NORTHEAST 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SOME STRENGTHENING OF CRISTOBAL IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TOMORROW. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 78W TWENTY FOUR HOURS AGO NOW IS ALONG 89W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. THE WAVE RUNS FROM THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...CROSSING OVER EL SALVADOR. ALL THE STRONG PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 92W AND 93W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS COMPARATIVELY MUCH LESS EVIDENT IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE THAN THE OTHER WAVES. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... 17N16W 8N27W 5N39W 10N63W. THE SMALL SECTION OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 56W AND 66W IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN 19N56W-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA 13N64W TROUGH. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 8N25W... FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 26W AND 27W...AND FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 29W AND 30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA THANKS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS CUBA INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EAST TEXAS TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ALONG THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER NEAR 28N100W TO A SECOND POSSIBLE CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 25N101W...TO 22N103W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF CYCLONIC FLOW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST OF THE 78W TROPICAL WAVE...EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA INTO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 19N56W INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 56W AND 66W IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BASE THE TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF HURRICANE BERTHA. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 27N60W TO A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N65W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 27N67W AND 30N71W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 62W AND 64W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN THE LOW CENTER AND 68W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH EAST OF THE LOW CENTER. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CONNECTED BY ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 27N50W TO 22N50W TO 19N56W TO 13N64W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN/SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE. $$ MT