000 AXNT20 KNHC 141154 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE.... TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 31.6N 63.8W AT 14/1200 UTC ABOUT 65 NM SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BERTHA IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE NORTH AT A FASTER SPEED AND A MOTION TO THE N-NW IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER WITH THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF RAINFALL LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS DETECTED ON DOPPLER RADAR FROM BERMUDA AS BERTHA IS DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLAND. HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 OF 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS BERMUDA. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 11N. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE WELL DEFINED ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC TURNING...FOCUSED NEAR THE LOW CENTER. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 40W-45W. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 36W-44W. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN WELL DEFINED FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BASED ON THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY EXHIBITS INVERTED-V SIGNATURE WITH CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 11N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 61W-65W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W/94W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 94W-96W OVER PORTIONS OF SRN MEXICO. THE WAVE EXTENDS INTO THE ERN PACIFIC...REFER TO THE E PACIFIC...TWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 7N32W 8N39W 7N43W 5N52W TO NEAR 9N61W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 9W-16W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 18W-29W. A SIMILAR AREA IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 32W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE SE AND WRN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE 5-10 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG 31N82W 29N82W 25N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE NE GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 83W-89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO REMAIN ACROSS THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 79W-85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 30N108W. THIS IS PROVIDING MOST OF THE GULF WITH NE TO N UPPER LEVEL FLOW. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE ERN GULF E OF 90W DUE TO A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS AND ELONGATED TROUGHING...ONE LOCATED N OF THE BAHAMAS IN THE W ATLC NEAR 30N77W AND ANOTHER OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N74W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS W OF 90W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE ERN CARIBBEAN AND IS ALONG 61W/62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SE CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 76W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER NRN COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW NEAR 18N74W N OF THE BAHAMAS TO ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERING THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH EXCEPTION ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN AS TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE REGION. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN MONDAY DUE TO THE WWD PROPAGATION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N69W. TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS FURTHER NORTHEAST. SEE ABOVE. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N53W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N42W 28N44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N31W TO 26N29W MOVING WWD. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SFC REPORTS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE HAZY LOOK ON FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DUST S OF 25N E OF 63W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 30N77W WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING S-SE TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA. THIS DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE W ATLC FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 77W-80W AS INDICATED ON LIGHTNING DATA. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 17N57W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OFFSHORE OF THE WRN COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN THE CANARY AND CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 24N20W. $$ HUFFMAN