000 AXNT20 KNHC 140600 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE.... TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 30.9N 63.4W AT 14/0600 UTC ABOUT 125 MILES...200 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BERTHA CONTINUES TO MEANDERING AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS...BUT A MOTION TO THE N-NW IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION PERSISTING IN THE EAST QUADRANT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER FROM 30N-31N BETWEEN 62W-63W. SIMILAR SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS IN A NORTHERN OUTER BAND FROM 32N-33N BETWEEN 61W-64W. THE W PERIPHERY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DETECTED ON DOPPLER RADAR FROM BERMUDA AND IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 50 NM SSE OF THE ISLAND. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 9N. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS A LARGE WELL DEFINED ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC TURNING... FOCUSED NEAR THE LOW CENTER. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 36W-43W. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 33W-41W. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS FROM TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...BARBADOS...ST LUCIA AND OTHER ISLANDS ALL SHOW 24-HR PRES FALLS OF ABOUT 3 MB DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE WAVE. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN WELL DEFINED FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BASED ON THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 61W-65W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. 24-HR SLP FALLS ARE ABOUT 2-3 MB OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...HONDURAS AND OTHER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA AND SRN MEXICO WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-19N AS WAVE MOVES BELOW AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 11N30W 10N39W 9N42W 10N59W 10N61W AND ACROSS NRN VENEZUELA. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 9N20W TO 4N31W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N93W WHERE 5-10 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE NRN FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG 31N82W 28N82W 26N83W. MOST DAYTIME CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS INLAND FLORIDA WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 27N BETWEEN 83W-88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO REMAIN ACROSS THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 80W-86W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SRN MEXICO FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 91W-95W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 31N103W. THIS IS PROVIDING MOST OF THE GULF WITH NE TO E UPPER LEVEL FLOW. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE ERN GULF E OF 90W DUE TO A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS AND ELONGATED TROUGHING...ONE LOCATED N OF THE BAHAMAS IN THE W ATLC NEAR 29N77W AND ANOTHER OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N74W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS W OF 90W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE ERN CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 71W-76W IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN AS UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND COASTAL NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 80W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER NRN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N72W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW NEAR 18N74W TO ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERING THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH EXCEPTION ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN AS TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE AREA. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN MONDAY DUE TO THE WWD PROPAGATION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N70W. TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS FURTHER E-NE. SEE ABOVE. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N53W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N44W 29N49W WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 31N30W TO 26N28W MOVING WWD. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SFC REPORTS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE HAZY LOOK ON VISIBLE IMAGES EARLIER ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DUST S OF 25N E OF 62W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 29N77W WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING S-SE TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA. THIS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 76W-79W AS INDICATED ON LIGHTNING DATA. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 16N51W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OFFSHORE OF THE WRN COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN THE CANARY AND CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 23N22W. $$ HUFFMAN