000 AXNT20 KNHC 130619 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE.... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA AT 13/0600 UTC IS NEAR 29.8N 62.5W...AND IT IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. THIS POSITION ALSO IS 189 NM/ 350 KM SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. A VERY SLOW MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO RESUME ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE ON MONDAY. THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS SLOWLY TO A POSITION NOT FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE MOTION COULD BE ERRATIC AT TIMES AND COULD BRING THE CENTER OF BERTHA CLOSER TO BERMUDA THAN THE FORECAST TRACK INDICATES. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 31W FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAVE WEAKENED AND/OR DISSIPATED ALREADY. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 15 KT. ONE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER/ TROUGH IS ALONG 52W...55W...AND 58W...JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W...AND FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 51W AND 53W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE STRETCHES FROM JAMAICA TO THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE A LOT TO DO WITH THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... 12N16W 12N25W 8N36W 12N48W 7N59W IN NORTHERN GUYANA. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 14W AND 17W...AND FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 36W AND 43W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. A FEW OTHER FEATURES HAVE DEVELOPED OR APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORMING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST EAST OF GEORGIA ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR 28N. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM EASTERN CUBA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 31N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SOME SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS NORTH OF ANDROS ISLAND TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND FROM GRAND CAYMAN TO CENTRAL CUBA. A SMALL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...NORTH OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS INTERIOR MEXICO WEST OF 100W PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WEST OF 30N105W 22N100W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TAIL END OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS NEAR 31N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO EASTERN CUBA REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS IN THE WATERS EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/NORTH OF HONDURAS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST UNDER EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE AND A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EAST OF 70W AND EAST OF 72W SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS NEAR 14N63W. EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION NEAR THE 14N63W CENTER HAS DISSIPATED ALREADY. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 70W... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ABOUT 900 NM EAST OF HURRICANE BERTHA...THROUGH 33N46W TO 23N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 47W THROUGH 33N TO 31N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 43W AND 47W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 34W IS AROUND A WEAK AND POSSIBLY STILL-FORMING CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 15N34W. $$ MT