000 AXNT20 KNHC 122341 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE.... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA AT 12/2100 UTC IS NEAR 29.9N 62.6W OR ABOUT 210 MILES...340 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. IT IS MOVING NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 1 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE MOTION OCCASIONALLY MAY BE ERRATIC AS MID LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UPWELLING HAS RECENTLY SLIGHTLY WEAKENED THE HURRICANE. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-33N BETWEEN 60W-65W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG 29W S OF 14N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N29W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL TURNING. THE SSMI/AMSRE ALSO INDICATES A BULGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE N OF THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOW NW OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 30W-32W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS WELL-DEFINED WITH LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 45W-54W. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. WAVE STRETCHES FROM JAMAICA TO N COLOMBIA. WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS IS EVIDENT ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION OBSERVED. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 11N24W 8N35W 12N50W 7N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...A LINE OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 16N16W TO 8N13W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 35W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N88W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W TO E TEXAS. 5-10 KT WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE NE GULF FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 82W-88W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 80W-84W. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 88W-93W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E TEXAS NEAR 31N96W. MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS W OF 90W. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 80W-86W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER W CUBA FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 81W-85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 71W-72W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N78W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N71W. HURRICANE BERTHA IS FURTHER E. SEE ABOVE. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC IS NEAR 33N37W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75W. GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOTED OVER HURRICANE BERTHA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N45W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 17N44W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 22N17W. $$ FORMOSA