000 AXNT20 KNHC 120601 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE.... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA AT 12/0600 UTC IS NEAR 29.5N 62.6W. IT IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES 4 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. THIS POSITION ALSO IS 200 NM/370 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE MOTION OCCASIONALLY MAY BE ERRATIC. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 61W AND 64W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 54W AND 68W. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL KEEP BERTHA AT 80 KT FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...WEAKENING GRADUALLY AND FALLING BELOW HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AFTER 72 HOURS. THE PROBABILITY OF WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE OCCURRING IN BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...AS CONVEYED IN THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INCLUDED IN EACH ADVISORY PACKAGE...HAS BEEN RISING GRADUALLY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND NOW HAS REACHED 58%. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 15 KT. A LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 10.5N45W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 46W AND 49W. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THE WAVE IS MOVING. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. ...THE ITCZ... 15N18W 9N33W 11N45W 10N60W IN NORTHERN GUYANA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 30W AND 32W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 24W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS EAST OF 90W AND COMPARATIVELY MUCH DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS WEST OF 90W. THE MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER/TROUGH IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED MORE AND MORE WESTWARD...A CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 27N104W IN MEXICO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N80W IN COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA TO 31N88W SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N86W TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CUTS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER ACROSS CUBA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 25N75W...ACROSS CUBA TO 19N80W. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ALREADY DISSIPATED NEAR THE TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE WATERS NORTH OF HONDURAS IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF NICARAGUA AND IN SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 81W AND 84W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 32N72W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 25N75W TO 23N76W...ACROSS CUBA TO 19N80W A LITTLE BIT WEST OF JAMAICA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 70W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF HURRICANE BERTHA...FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 34N45W TO 25N46W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 34W AND 56W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N72W TO THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N...AND EVENTUALLY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N86W. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 57W. $$ MT