000 AXNT20 KNHC 120014 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE.... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA AT 11/2100 UTC IS NEAR 29.1N 62.2W...OR ABOUT 270 MILES...435 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB. BERTHA REMAINS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BERMUDA. PRESENTLY BERTHA IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF BERMUDA AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. INTERESTS IN THE ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS BERTHA AS A SYMMETRICAL HURRICANE WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW BOTH TO THE NORTH AND TO THE SOUTH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 59W-64W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. AN INVERTED-V PATTERN AS WELL AS BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING ARE OBSERVED. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 40W-43W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH NO CONVECTION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE AXIS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 68W-72W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N20W 6N30W 10N42W 7N50W 7N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 19W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 27W-30W...AND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 31W-35W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 30W-34W...AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 45W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N86W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W TO E TEXAS. 5-10 KT WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND HOWEVER OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...S GEORGIA...AND S ALABAMA FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 83W-89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 28N-29N BETWEEN 81W-83W. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 88W-92W. IN THE UPPER LEVEL...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W. MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT THE NW GULF AND S TEXAS WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. EXPECT...CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 77W-83W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER E CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 71W-79W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER W HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 86W-89W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N80W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N62W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 78W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 78W. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N73W. HURRICANE BERTHA IS FURTHER E. SEE ABOVE. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC IS NEAR 32N33W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N74W. GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOTED OVER HURRICANE BERTHA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N45W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 20N28W. $$ FORMOSA