000 AXNT20 KNHC 110610 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE.... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA AT 11/0300 UTC IS NEAR 27.7N 61.2W. IT IS MOVING NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. THIS POSITION ALSO IS 335 NM/620 KM SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN 56W AND 66W. THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE IDEA TO KEEP THE INTENSITY LEVEL FOR BERTHA THE SAME FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE WIND SHEAR POTENTIALLY INCREASES AND BERTHA PASSES OVER GRADUALLY COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BERTHA APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN GRADUALLY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 315 DEGREES AT 07 KT. THE FORECAST AND ITS SUPPORTING REASONING REALLY HAVE NOT CHANGED FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS OR SO...INCLUDING A VERY SLOW FORWARD MOTION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS NEAR BERMUDA. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT TO WHICH BERTHA MAY IMPACT BERMUDA. RESIDENTS AND TOURISTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 55W AND 66W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 56W AND 70W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. ...THE ITCZ... 11N16W 7N32W 9N45W 8N52W 10N61W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 15N BETWEEN 14W AND 32W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 32W AND 42W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N41W 9N46W 8N50W 6N53W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FLOW AROUND THE 28N69W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF 23N...NORTHWESTWARD TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER. THE MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER/TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED ASHORE. IT NOW HUGS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS FROM 30N SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST/ EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO. A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N94W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF THE 21N94W CYCLONIC CENTER WEST OF 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ALONG THE MEXICO COAST FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 95W AND 98W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION REMAIN FROM MEXICO/GUATEMALA 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 68W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ALTERNATELY DEVELOPING...DISSIPATING...AND POSSIBLY RE-DEVELOPING IN THE WATERS AND LAND AREAS NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 17N IS AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW...GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 18N...AND THE 28N69W 25N74W 21N77W TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W AT THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN THE VENEZUELA BORDER AND 75W JUST WEST OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N74W TO 21N77W IN EASTERN CUBA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 68W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ALTERNATELY DEVELOPING...DISSIPATING...AND POSSIBLY RE-DEVELOPING IN THE WATERS AND LAND AREAS NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 66W AND 73W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE BERTHA IS MOVING ON TOP OF THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 28N69W CENTER. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 35N43W...ABOUT 1000 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HURRICANE BERTHA...THROUGH 32N44W TO 26N46W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 34N45W TO 31N48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 30N TO 36N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N70W TO 28N ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 52W. $$ MT