000 AXNT20 KNHC 101048 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE.... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA AT 10/0900 UTC IS NEAR 26.0N 59.4W. IT IS MOVING NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. THIS POSITION ALSO IS 474 NM/875 KM SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA FROM 23N TO 34N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ONLY TAKES THE WIND SPEEDS TO 95 KT...JUST SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE VALUES FOR A CATEGORY THREE MAJOR HURRICANE. AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF HURRICANE BERTHA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THUS IT IS LIKELY THAT THE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE MAY BEND TOWARD THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. RESIDENTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE ACTIVITY OF HURRICANE BERTHA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INLAND...NOW WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...ALONG 99W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT CUTS ACROSS THE TOP OF THE AREA OF THE WAVE. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER MEXICO IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM LAND TO 21N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W. ...THE ITCZ... 10N14W 5N25W 6N34W 9N56W 9N61W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N34W 5N46W 10N55W 10N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 10W AND 22W...AND FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 22W AND 30W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 74W AND NORTH OF 24N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 90W. A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 28N92W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN BETWEEN 91W AND 94W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INLAND MEXICO...ON TOP OF A 99W TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM INTERIOR MEXICO ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SOUTH OF 20N...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR 14N63W FROM SIX HOURS AGO APPEARS TO HAVE LOST ITS FORM AND IS NOT EVIDENT AT THIS TIME. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 70W SOUTH OF 16N. EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO HAVE DIMINISHED. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE CURVED NORTHWARD ACROSS THOSE ISLANDS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND WESTERN CUBA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CUTS ACROSS THE TOP OF THE AREA OF THIS INVERTED TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 6N73W IN COLOMBIA TO 14N79W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W...UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...NORTH OF THE ITCZ...WITH BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N69W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF HURRICANE BERTHA REACHES 30N52W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT WHOSE SOUTHERNMOST POINT IS 31N42W. ANY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT ARE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 38W AND 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N60W TO 28N78W...ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN PASSING THROUGH 31N29W TO 22N38W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N28W TO 22N47W TO 15N51W. $$ MT