000 AXNT20 KNHC 091027 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE.... HURRICANE BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 23.5N 56.5W AT 09/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 560 MILES...905 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 790 MILES...1275 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA MOVING NW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT42 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BERTHA IS CURRENTLY A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS BERTHA BEGINS TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF WINDSHEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 55W-58W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ID INTRODUCED ALONG 29W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE THAT HAS LOW CLOUD TURNING JUST N OF THE ITCZ. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS IS ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE. CONVECTION IS ALSO CONFINED TO THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE W OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 90W-97W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 11N23W 8N35W 8N50W 7N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 18W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 15W-31W...FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 33W-38W...AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 50W-56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 30N. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE ALL CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. 10-15 KT SELY SURFACE FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TINY UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 30N91W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION LATER TODAY OVER MOST OF THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 95W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 75W-85W. AN AREA OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 66W-72W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS S OF JAMAICA FROM 15N-16N BETWEEN 77W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 87W-91W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N83W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION NEAR HISPANIOLA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 28N AND W OF 75W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR BERMUDA AT 33N64W. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N22W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N68W. TWO UPPER LEVEL HIGHS ARE CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 19N46W...AND NEAR 22N26W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 22N AND E OF 30W. $$ FORMOSA