000 AXNT20 KNHC 090011 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE.... HURRICANE BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 22.7N 54.8W AT 08/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 620 MILES...1000 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS OR ABOUT 900 MILES...1450 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT42 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BERTHA IS CURRENTLY A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS BERTHA BEGINS TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF WINDSHEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 53W-56W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER W FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 51W-53W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE PROTRUDES NOT MUCH N OF THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 45W-52W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. A PORTION OF THE WAVE BROKE OFF FROM THE NORTH AND IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING NW ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE W OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 86W-91W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 11N23W 8N35W 8N45W 8N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 13W-16W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 23W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 30N. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 29N84W 24N88W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO E OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER INLAND FLORIDA FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 80W-83W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF AND S TEXAS FROM W OF 96W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ... A TINY UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 31N91W. ANOTHER TINY UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 27N81W. A TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT CONTINUED AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO W OF 95W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE AREA. A BAND OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 62W-70W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W JAMAICA FROM 18N-19N BETWEEN 78W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 77W-83W. BANDS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 83W-89W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N83W. ELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION NEAR HISPANIOLA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 27N AND W OF 75W. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR BERMUDA AT 33N64W. ANOTHER 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N38W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 27N81W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N64W. TWO UPPER LEVEL HIGHS ARE CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 18N45W...AND NEAR 21N33W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 22N AND E OF 30W. $$ FORMOSA