000 AXNT20 KNHC 072333 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUL 07 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE.... HURRICANE BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 20.1N 52.1W AT 07/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 730 MILES...1175 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1150 MILES...1855 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT42 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BERTHA CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT AN EYE OF ROUGHLY 15 NM IN DIAMETER...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF ITS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION NOW SURROUNDS THE EYE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS LOW AMPLITUDE WHILE MOSTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27N77W 20N80W TO 8N80W MOVING WNW NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND EXTENDS FROM ERN PANAMA ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO THE NW BAHAMAS. SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY INDICATES AN INVERTED-V CURVATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 76W-79W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA BETWEEN 76W-85W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 75W-83W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W/96W S OF 25N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE MASKING ANY SATELLITE SIGNATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 93W-97W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 8N23W 6N45W 10N56W AND INTO NE VENEZUELA NEAR 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 14W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 21W-25W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 40W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 30N. 10-15 KT SELY SURFACE FLOW IS NOTED. CLUSTERS OF AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA...AND OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO AND TEXAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER FLORIDA FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 81W-83W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 93W-97W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING MAINLY NWLY FLOW W OF 87W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT CONTINUED AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER N FLORIDA AND THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO W OF 92W. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE AREA. A BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA W OF GUADELOUPE FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 63W-66W. BANDS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 83W-86W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FURTHER W OVER EL SALVADOR. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N78W. ELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BESIDES THE CONVECTION DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS N TO THE BAHAMAS...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN 72W-75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 28N. A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC E OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N63W. ANOTHER 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N42W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N73W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N64W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 19N40W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 22N AND E OF 30W. $$ FORMOSA