000 AXNT20 KNHC 070006 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUL 06 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE.... TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 18.0N 47.0W AT 2100 UTC OR ABOUT 1055 MILES...1700 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W AT 18 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT42 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BERTHA IS EXPERIENCING SOME SHEAR AND HAS CONVECTION W OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 46W-49W. EXPECTED GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR MORE FAVORABLE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH CYCLONIC TURN EXTENDING A LITTLE N OF THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE ITCZ FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 28W-32W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER S FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 24W-33W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 24N MOVING W 20 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO N OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 2123N-25N BETWEEN 72W-74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W S OF 25N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 7N30W 8N40W 11N47W 9N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 14W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 33W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. 10-15 KT SELY SURFACE FLOW IS NOTED. CLUSTERS OF AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER FLORIDA FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 80W-83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 93W-99W MOSTLY DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF TAMPICO MEXICO FROM 25N98W TO 20N97W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING MAINLY NWLY FLOW W OF 85W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT CONTINUED AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER FLORIDA AND THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO W OF 92W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER INLAND CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 77W-83W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER JAMAICA FROM 18N-19N BETWEEN 77W-79W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. ELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 72W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BESIDES THE CONVECTION DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS N OF HISPANIOLA...CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 61W-66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 78W-80W. A 1027 MB HIGH IS STATIONARY OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N59W. ANOTHER 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N39W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N49W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 18N37W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 22N AND E OF 30W. $$ FORMOSA