000 AXNT20 KNHC 061748 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUL 06 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE.... TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 45.1W AT 1500 UTC OR ABOUT 1025 NM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W AT 18 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT42 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BERTHA REMAINS OVER THE WATERS OF THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR MORE FAVORABLE. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS INCREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ENCOUNTER MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SHEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED W OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 44W-47W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS MAINLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. NO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE AXIS...WITH ONLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W S OF 24N MOVING W 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. EARLIER 1034Z QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMS POSITION OF THE WAVE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 68W-72W WHICH IS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W S OF 25N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE YUCATAN BASIN SOUTH OF WRN CUBA FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 81W-85W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 7N26W 6N30W 9N40W 7N55W 12N69W AND ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM NRN COLOMBIA TO ACROSS COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 15W-19W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 37W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF CONSISTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ACROSS E CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO WRN CUBA AND BROAD RIDGING EXTENDING FROM W CENTRAL MEXICO ACROSS THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THIS RIDGING IS PROVIDING PREDOMINANTLY W-NW UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WITH UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS THE SWRN GULF AND A DIFFLUENT PATTERN IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE IN THE WRN GULF FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 92W-98W... INCLUDING COASTAL S TEXAS FROM GALVESTON TO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH ONLY A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE NE GULF AND WITHIN 120 NM OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA COASTLINE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC COVERS MUCH OF THE NRN GULF KEEPING 10-20 KT E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE SEA. THE EASTERN ONE ALONG 70W/71W IS WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 70W-75W SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. THE OTHER WAVE ALONG 85W IS AIDING IN PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE YUCATAN BASIN S OF WRN CUBA. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COASTAL PANAMA TO 13N W OF 76W IN ASSOCIATION WITH CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ITCZ AXIS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS KEEPING THE ERN CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO SETTLE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS DIFFLUENT OVER THE W ATLC IN ASSOCIATION WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A WEAKENING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER E CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE E OF THE UPPER LOW N OF CUBA ACROSS SRN FLORIDA...THE ERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS. E OF 77W A BROAD AMPLIFIED RIDGE COVERS THE REST OF THE W ATLC IN THE UPPER LEVELS. FARTHER E...A LARGE UPPER LOW IS SPINNING NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 36N47W WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING S TO NEAR 22N56W. LARGE SCALE RIDGING HOLDS E OF THERE WITH AN UPPER HIGH POSITIONED NEAR 19N36W. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE...A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N60W CONTINUES TO HOLD RIDGING ACROSS THE W ATLC. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W/71W PROVIDES ONLY WEAKNESS IN THIS RIDGE AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS EXTENDING NWD TO 27N BETWEEN 68W-72W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC...A QUASI-STATIONARY 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 37N38W. THIS HIGH IS PROVIDING MAINLY MODERATE NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN AND KEEPING T.S. BERTHA ON HER WESTWARD TRACK. $$ HUFFMAN