000 AXNT20 KNHC 051055 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE.... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS NEAR 16.5N 35.3W AT 05/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 1205 KM WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 18 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 17N35.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 31W AND 34W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING BUT STILL LINGERING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 31W AND 35W. GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS MOVE BERTHA WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W SOUTH OF 23N MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KT. THE WAVE SHOWED UP WELL IN THE LOW CLOUD MOVEMENTS IN THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF YESTERDAY. THIS WAVE HAS ENTERED THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WITH IT AT THIS TIME. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE STRETCHES FROM THE WATERS BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA SIX HOURS AGO EITHER HAS DISSIPATED COMPLETELY OR IT HAS MOVED WESTWARD FROM COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA MORE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ...THE ITCZ... 9N13W 11N20W 16N29W 12N34W 8N40W 5N55W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 19W AND 23W. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS ALONG THE AFRICA COAST SIX HOURS AGO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE 3N TO 12N BETWEEN 6W AND 24W... AND FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 28W AND 53W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 29N100W. A TROUGH EXTENDS TO 26N103W IN NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...EVENTUALLY TO 20N103W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 103W AND 105W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 21N97W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 95W AND THE COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXTENDS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N79W...ACROSS FLORIDA TO 26N83W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 20N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...AND IN A LINE ABOUT 30 NM WIDE FROM THE CUBA COAST NEAR 23N79W TO 26N79W TO 29N77W TO 32N76W. A SURFACE RIDGE ENTERS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG THE LINE THROUGH 28N77W TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS NORTHWARD TO 20N85W AND 26N83W IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THIS TROUGH...ALONG 12N82W 18N80W BEYOND 22N78W IN CUBA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS EVERYTHING WEST OF 70W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS UNDER THIS RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ONE CELL OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 82W AND 83W. A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 68W/69W. THE 60W TROPICAL WAVE IS NOT BRINGING LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 35N51W TO 31N53W TO 27N55W TO 20N63W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 33N47W TO 28N50W TO 25N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 20N45W BEYOND 33N44W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 29N31W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 26N AND 40W WITH THE 29N31W CYCLONIC CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 32N TO 33N BETWEEN 27W AND 36W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N61W TO 28N77W TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 28N. $$ MT