000 AXNT20 KNHC 050619 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE.... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS NEAR 16.0N 33.5W AT 05/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 1015 KM WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING WEST 18 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT42 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 31W AND 33W...AND FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 33W AND 34W. GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS MOVE BERTHA WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W SOUTH OF 23N MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KT. THE WAVE SHOWED UP WELL IN THE LOW CLOUD MOVEMENTS IN THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF YESTERDAY. THIS WAVE SHOULD BE REALLY CLOSE TO 60W...ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FOR THE 05/0600 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 19N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 73W IN SOUTHWESTERN HAITI MAY BE RELATED TO THE WAVE. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS NOT EASY TO KNOW WHICH AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE WAVE OR TO THE LARGER SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 85W AND 86W FROM COSTA RICA TO PANAMA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM SOUTHERN HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR BETWEEN 87W AND 97W IN MEXICO. ...THE ITCZ... 9N13W 10N21W 16N28W 12N34W 7N40W 5N54W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 16W AND 25W...FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...AND FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 30N100W. A TROUGH EXTENDS TO 26N103W IN NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...EVENTUALLY TO 20N103W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 100W IN MEXICO. CELLS OF LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO FROM 21N TO 24N...AND NEAR 19N92.5W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N79W...ACROSS FLORIDA TO 26N83W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 20N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN ONE CELL JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...AND IN A LINE ABOUT 30 NM WIDE FROM THE CUBA COAST NEAR 23N79W TO 26N79W TO 29N77W TO 31N76W. A SURFACE RIDGE ENTERS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG THE LINE THROUGH 28N73W TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS NORTHWARD TO 20N85W AND 26N83W IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THIS TROUGH...ALONG 12N82W 18N80W BEYOND 22N78W IN CUBA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS EVERYTHING WEST OF 70W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS UNDER THIS RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING...POSSIBLY LINGERING... PRECIPITATION IS SOUTH OF 20N WEST OF 80W. A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 68W. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 17.5N68W. THE 57W/58W IS ENTERING THE EXTREME EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...NOT BRINGING LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N51W TO 29N56W TO 20N64W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N47W TO 28N50W TO 26N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 20N45W BEYOND 33N44W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 30N32W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 26N AND 40W WITH THE RIDGE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 32N TO 33N BETWEEN 27W AND 31W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N59W TO 28N73W TO NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. $$ MT