000 AXNT20 KNHC 031048 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE.... THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. T.D. TWO IS CENTERED NEAR 12.6N 22.7W...ABOUT 215 NM SSE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AT 03/0900 UTC MOVING WNW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE DEPRESSION HAS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION AND A COMPACT AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. FURTHER STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS TITLED ALONG 42W/43W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. DESPITE THE HIGH AMPLIFICATION OF THIS FEATURE...THERE IS NOT MUCH ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS. ONLY A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT AND AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED IS EXPECTED E OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE REGION WHERE THE ITCZ INTERSECTS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 36W-43W. LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS WEAK WITH LITTLE SIGNATURE NOTED IN THE AVAILABLE DATA...BUT IT MAY BE ENHANCING A FEW CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ. WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 62W/63W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. A WEAK LOW OR VORTICITY MAX IS SITUATED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 14N. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND EXPANDED SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT IT REMAINS DISORGANIZED FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 61W-65W. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THIS ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO AN UPPER ENVIRONMENT NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 76W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT. POSITION IS HIGHLY BASED ON CONTINUITY AS LITTLE SIGNATURE OR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED W OF THE AREA ALONG 94W/95W. REFER TO THE EAST PACIFIC TWD...MIATWDEP...FOR DETAILS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N17W 9N24W 7N39W 5N46W 7N57W 9N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 24W-27W AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 52W-59W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SWIFT WESTERLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE S SIDE OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH LIES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS MAINTAINING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE ENTIRE AREA IS NOT EXPERIENCING RAINFALL...ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. LIGHTNING DATA AND DOPPLER RADAR (WHERE AVAILABLE) INDICATE THE MORE ORGANIZED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTM OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN WATERS FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 89W-96W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS THE LIKELY ENHANCER FOR THIS ACTIVITY. AT THE SFC...THE LINGERING FRONT OVER THE N GULF COAST HAS DISSIPATED ALLOWING ATLC RIDGING TO BUILD W ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THIS RIDGE SHOULD STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND HOLD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE IS A TROPICAL WAVE AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION IS MAINLY CONFINED TO A COUPLE OF AREAS. ONE OF THE MORE PROMINENT AREAS IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NORTHERN HONDURAS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EPAC AND A DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE SCATTERED S OF 14N W OF 73W...LIKELY TIED TO THE ITCZ. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 68W-71W ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF A WEAKENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE... ESPECIALLY ON THE N SIDE OF AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 11N79W...BUT MUCH OF THIS IS ONLY IN THE FORM OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS DIFFLUENT OVER THE FAR W ATLC BETWEEN ELONGATED TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE U.S. AND A NARROW RIDGE JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS N OF 26N W OF 78W. FARTHER E...A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS ARE SPINNING NEAR 30N50W AND NEAR 30N62W WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING S INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LARGE SCALE RIDGING HOLDS E OF THERE WITH AN UPPER HIGH POSITIONED NEAR 20N45W. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER. AT THE SFC...A QUASI-STATIONARY 1030 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 34N40W. A COUPLE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS...ONE ALONG 47W N OF 22N (ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE) AND THE OTHER FIZZLING ALONG 71W/72W N OF 28N...ARE WEAKENING THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY AND PRODUCING LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS IN THEIR VICINITY. $$ CANGIALOSI