000 AXNT20 KNHC 030556 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE.... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...IS CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED NM SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 12N22W...ANALYZED 1009 MB. THIS LOW HAS BEEN TRACKING W ABOUT 10 KT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CIRCULATION IS WELL DEFINED AND CONVECTION (SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE IN NATURE) HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TODAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. DESPITE THE HIGH AMPLIFICATION OF THIS FEATURE...THERE IS NOT MUCH ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS. ONLY A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT AND AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED IS EXPECTED E OF THE AXIS. LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS WEAK WITH LITTLE SIGNATURE NOTED IN THE AVAILABLE DATA...BUT IT MAY BE ENHANCING A FEW CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ. WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 61W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT. A WEAK LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 14N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MAINLY WITHIN 90-120 NM N/NE OF THE LOW CENTER AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS ACTIVITY. BEHIND THE AXIS...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SE AND INCREASED TO 20 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO AN UPPER ENVIRONMENT NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 75W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT. POSITION IS HIGHLY BASED ON CONTINUITY AS LITTLE SIGNATURE OR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED W OF THE AREA ALONG 94W. REFER TO THE EAST PACIFIC TWD...MIATWDEP...FOR DETAILS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 8N24W 10N33W 6N44W 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 16W-19W AND WITHIN 120 NM N AND 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W-26W AND 35W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE S SIDE OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH LIE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS MAINTAINING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE ENTIRE AREA IS NOT EXPERIENCING RAINFALL...ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. LIGHTNING DATA AND DOPPLER RADAR (WHERE AVAILABLE) INDICATE A FEW AREAS OF SOME ORGANIZED PRECIP. THE HEAVIEST SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OVER THE SE WATERS AND THE FL STRAITS S OF 26N E OF 85W. LESS ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 86W-88W AND FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 90W-94W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS THE LIKELY ENHANCER FOR ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY. AT THE SFC...THE LINGERING FRONT OVER THE N GULF COAST HAS DISSIPATED ALLOWING ATLC RIDGING TO BUILD W ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS RIDGE SHOULD STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND HOLD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE IS A TROPICAL WAVE AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION IS MAINLY CONFINED TO A COUPLE OF AREAS. THE MOST PROMINENT IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NORTHERN NICARAGUA TO S MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EPAC AND A DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE SCATTERED S OF 13N W OF 73W...LIKELY TIED TO THE ITCZ. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 66W-68W ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF A WEAKENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE ...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE... ESPECIALLY ON THE N SIDE OF AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 11N79W...BUT MUCH OF THIS IS ONLY IN THE FORM OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS DIFFLUENT OVER THE FAR W ATLC BETWEEN ELONGATED TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE U.S. AND A NARROW RIDGE JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 26N W OF 78W. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 30N50W AND ANOTHER NEAR 30N62W WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING S INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LARGE SCALE RIDGING HOLDS E OF THERE WITH AN UPPER HIGH POSITIONED NEAR 20N44W. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER. AT THE SFC...A QUASI-STATIONARY 1030 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 34N40W. A COUPLE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS...ONE ALONG 48W N OF 24N AND THE OTHER ALONG 71W N OF 27N...ARE WEAKENING THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY AND PRODUCING LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS IN THEIR VICINITY. $$ CANGIALOSI