000 AXNT20 KNHC 022348 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE.... A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR E ATLANTIC IS JUST EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 22W/23W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD STRUCTURE WITH WELL DEFINED 1008 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 19W-23W. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO SEE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE TO MINIMAL CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 6N48W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS A WELL DEFINED WAVE WITH AN INVERTED V-STRUCTURE. A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOTED NEAR 14N60W JUST EAST OF ST LUCIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 59W-62W. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 74W/75W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND CHALLENGING TO LOCATE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 73W-76W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER S MEXICO ALONG 93W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 88W-92W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ON THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 92W-95W. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS FORMED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 9N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 8N22W 10N33W 6N42W 8N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 16W-20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 22W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... CLUSTERS OF AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA N OF 24N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 80W-89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 84W-87W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS S OF LOUISIANA FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 92W-95W. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE NRN YUCATAN FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 87W-90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N. ZONAL FLOW IS S OF 25N. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT CONTINUED AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 81W-84W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA EXCEPT OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR FLORIDA FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 79W-80W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 72W-75W. A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N57W. ANOTHER 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N39W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N74W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N50W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 19N43W. $$ FORMOSA