000 AXNT20 KNHC 021804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE.... A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR E ATLANTIC IS JUST EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 22W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD STRUCTURE WITH WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS ACTUALLY DISPLACED EAST OF THE WAVE NEAR 12N20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-14N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 400NM E AND 100NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 5N-10N. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO SEE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE TO MINIMAL CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS WEAK AND MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE ONES TO ITS E. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 46W AND 47W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AS SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INVERTED V-STRUCTURE. A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST EAST OF BARBADOS. SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS MAINLY CONFINED TO ITS W SIDE SHEARED BY UPPER ELY FLOW FROM 12N-13N BETWEEN 56W-59W. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 73W/74W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND CHALLENGING TO LOCATE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY. THERE IS CURRENTLY NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER MEXICO IN BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG 92W/93W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS FORMED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 9N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE EPAC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N17W 9N30W 6N42W 7N52W 10N65W 11N80W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 76W-82W. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN IN THE SAME PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE LAST THREE DAYS. IT IS OCCURRING NEAR THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...IN AN AREA OF SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AND NEAR THE ITCZ. ALL OTHER CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS SSW FROM THE NORTHEAST U.S. TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN LOCKED IN THIS AREA IS BEING DEEPENED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N-30N W OF 81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ENHANCED BY THE NORTHERN HALF OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS WEAK AS THE STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE N GULF COAST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH SFC RIDGING TRYING TO BUILD W FROM THE ATLC. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N69W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO NEAR 13N73W. THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST BOTH TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHERE THE AIR IS DRIER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE NW WATERS WITH NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IN THE S/SW PORTION FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 76W-82W. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN IN THE SAME PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE LAST THREE DAYS. IT IS OCCURRING NEAR THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...IN AN AREA OF SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AND NEAR THE ITCZ. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE IN THE E CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 64W AND 65W...AND FROM 13N TO 14N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 60W... ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE E OF BARBADOS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... LARGE SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A NARROW RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 24N W OF 70W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC IS FAIRLY STABLE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N50W AND RIDGING TO ITS EAST. IN THE DEEP TROPICS... A RIDGE IS FROM 26N34W TO 12N54W WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES...ESPECIALLY THE ONE IN THE FAR E ATLC. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE PATTERN OF THE UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLC TO CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH WITH A RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. $$ CW/MT