000 AXNT20 KNHC 020558 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE.... A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR E ATLANTIC ALONG 20W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEFINED WITH A 1010 MB SFC LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 11N/12N...VERY NEAR A MAINTAINED BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM 10N-13N WITHIN 60 NM E AND 180 NM W OF THE AXIS. THIS SYSTEM HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS TITLED NW-SE ALONG 20N37W 7N34W. WHILE THIS WAVE IS RATHER AMPLIFIED AS SEEN IN SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS AND THE TPW FIELD...ORGANIZED DEEP CLOUDINESS IS MINIMAL WITH ONLY ONE PATCH OF MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 32W-34W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS WEAK AND MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE ONES TO ITS E. HOWEVER...IT IS LIKELY ENHANCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 42W-46W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AS SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE TPW FIELD CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INVERTED V-STRUCTURE. A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO BE FORMING ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 12N AND SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THAT AREA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 55W-57W. A RECENT QSCAT PASS REVEALS A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT ABOUT THE AXIS AND AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO 20-25 KT E OF THE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 71W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND CHALLENGING TO LOCATE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH A WEAK MOISTURE SURGE EVIDENT IN THE TPW FIELD. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 90W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. THE INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO S OF 20N BETWEEN 86W-95W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 8N21W 10N34W 6N41W 9N54W 10N62W. CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... LONGWAVE TROUGHING EXTENDS SSW FROM THE NORTHEAST U.S. INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SE WATERS FROM 24N-27N E OF 86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ENHANCED BY THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION HAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MULTILAYER CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS WEAK AS A FRONT HAS DRIFTED N TO ALONG THE N GULF COAST WITH SFC RIDGING TRYING TO BUILD W FROM THE ATLC. THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS PRODUCING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE N WATERS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE ELY WINDS ACROSS THE S WATERS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N70W WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING S TO NEAR 12N72W. WHILE DRY AIR IS EVIDENT NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS...THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST BOTH OVER THE FAR EASTERN AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN DIFFLUENT ZONES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE NW AND SW WATERS BUT THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED W OF THE AREA WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE AFFECTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE AREA. TRADE WINDS ARE ON THE STRONG SIDE OVER THE S CENTRAL AND SW WATERS DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND SEMI-PERMANENT LOW PRES TROUGHING OVER COLOMBIA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN...DUE TO LARGE SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A NARROW RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS...IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N W OF 71W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC IS FAIRLY STABLE WITH A FEW BENIGN UPPER LOWS SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND RIDGING HOLDING IN PLACE OVER THE E ATLC. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...A LARGE SCALE RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 19N43W WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES...ESPECIALLY THE VIGOROUS ONE IN THE FAR E ATLC. $$ CANGIALOSI