000 AXNT20 KNHC 011806 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 17W S OF 19N ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 15 KT. A 1011 MB SFC LOW IS SITUATED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 11N...VERY NEAR A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS WAVE IS RATHER VIGOROUS EXHIBITING WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC TURNING AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THIS WAVE WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADDED TO THE 01/06Z ANALYSIS ALONG 31/32W S OF 18N ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 15 KT. ACCORDING TO SOUNDING DATA...THIS WAVE PASSED DAKAR ON SUN AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EARLY MON. THIS WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO SEE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE TO MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W S OF 12N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE WAVES TO ITS E. THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EASY TO LOCATE AS SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE TPW FIELD DISPLAY A BROAD INVERTED-V SHAPE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100NM W OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 10N-13N AND BETWEEN 15N-17N. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 68W/69W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS POSITION IS PRIMARILY BASED ON CONTINUITY AS LITTLE SIGNATURE IS APPARENT IN MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE DATA. THERE IS LITTLE OR NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 86W/87W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. THE INTERACTION WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 82W-87W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N19W 9N29W 6N36W 5N43W 8N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 27W-34W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 36W-43W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 57W-63W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA RUNNING FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N96W CONTINUING ACROSS S TEXAS. A LARGE MID TO UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO N CENTRAL GULF WATERS IS GIVING THIS FRONT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DRIVEN BY W TO NW UPPER FLOW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 94W-98W A LITTLE BIT E OF A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER AND TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS ARE COVERING THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO S OF 22N W OF 98W. THESE CLOUDS ARE PRESENT DUE TO OUTFLOW ON TOP OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS LOW MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA JUST CLIPS THE AREA NEAR SE FLORIDA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... PRONOUNCED MID TO UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS S FROM AN UPPER LOW E OF THE BAHAMAS ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 13N75W. WHILE DRY AIR IS LOCATED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS...A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS LOCATED BOTH TO ITS E AND W. TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING AND PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED. SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BASE THERE ARE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND WATERS FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N78W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW COULD BE ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION. HIGH CLOUDS BETWEEN 60W-70W IN THE E CARIBBEAN ARE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...AROUND AN ANTI-CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 14N53W. IN GENERAL BROAD UPPER ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN AND W ATLANTIC FROM 10N-25N BETWEEN 40W-70W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BEING SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE 28N48W 26N61W 20N71W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN THE AREA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS SHOW THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE W AND NW OF A LINE THROUGH 32N69W TO 22N77W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N14W TO THE MOROCCO COAST NEAR 28N12W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN THE 28N48W CYCLONIC CENTER AND THE 34N14W 28N12W TROUGH. $$ CW/MT