000 AXNT20 KNHC 010534 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ADDED TO THE 06Z ANALYSIS IN THE VICINITY OF 29W/30W ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 10-15 KT. ACCORDING TO SATELLITE AND SOUNDING DATA...THIS WAVE PASSED DAKAR ON SUN AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EARLY MON. WHILE THE STRUCTURE OF THIS WAVE IS AMPLIFIED (A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING CENTERED NEAR 16N)...DEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE ONE TO ITS E...BUT IT IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 35W-40W...HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY THE LARGER WAVE TO THE E. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EASY TO LOCATE AS SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE TPW FIELD DISPLAY A BROAD INVERTED-V SHAPE. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR THE N PORTION OF THE AXIS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 49W-51W. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 65W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS POSITION IS PRIMARILY BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION AS LITTLE SIGNATURE IS APPARENT IN MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE DATA. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. QSCAT DATA AND SFC OBSERVATION SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE ELY TRADES BEHIND THE AXIS AND LIGHTER NE/E WINDS AHEAD OF IT. CONVECTION IS MAINLY GROUPED AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...ENHANCED BY AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 8N28W 6N40W 7N51W 6N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA...IS FROM 8N-15N E OF 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A LARGE MID TO UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND BROAD RIDGING LIES OVER S MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DRIVEN BY W TO NW UPPER FLOW. WHILE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS ONLY IN THE FORM OF BROKEN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...THERE ARE A FEW FEATURES THAT ARE CAUSING ENHANCED LIFT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE OFF THE W COAST OF FLORIDA IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 25N E OF 83W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS LOCATED NEAR THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA AND E TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. LIGHTER AND MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH. OTHERWISE...AN OVERALL WEAK SFC PRESSURE PATTERN IS ALLOWING WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND MAINLY OUT OF THE NE/E. CARIBBEAN... PRONOUNCED MID TO UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS S FROM AN UPPER LOW E OF THE BAHAMAS ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 13N75W. WHILE DRY AIR IS LOCATED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS...A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS LOCATED BOTH TO ITS E AND W. THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AS TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE CAUSING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 83W-89W. SIMILAR CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 77W ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALED AN INCREASE IN ELY TRADES (20-25 KT) E OF THE AXIS...WITH WINDS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL ENHANCED AREA NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE E CARIBBEAN IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE CONSISTING OF MAINLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY NEARING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE. ATLANTIC... UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE E GULF AND A NARROW MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 76W. OTHERWISE...THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC IS QUIET DESPITE A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH ONLY PATCHY MULTILAYER CLOUDS COVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...MID TO UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG 16N/17N. MOST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...ESPECIALLY THE VIGOROUS ONE NEAR THE COAST OF AFRICA. $$ CANGIALOSI