000 AXNT20 KNHC 291805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE OF NEARBY ITCZ PRECIPITATION. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 39W AND 44W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT...IT STRETCHES FROM HAITI TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA/ NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION JUST WITH THIS WAVE. ONLY NEARBY ITCZ PRECIPITATION. ...THE ITCZ... 7N10W 8N20W 8N30W 7N40W TO 5N53W AT THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 1W AND 4W...FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 5W AND 7W...FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 8W AND 9W...AND FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 11W AND 14W. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 15W AND 17W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 19W AND 32W...AND SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 38W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME SEPARATED OR CUT OFF FROM THE PARENT TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE NOW-SEPARATED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TO INTERIOR MEXICO NEAR 20N100W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 95W AND 98W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 22N92W TO 27N87W BEYOND 30N84W AT THE FLORIDA GULF COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 28N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ACROSS FLORIDA TO 27N88W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 82W IN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC-TO-22N92W- TO 27N87W RIDGE COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 80W. THE FLOW CROSSES 80W AND FEEDS INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 11N79W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND 71W. THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN TERMS OF AERIAL COVERAGE...IS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AT THIS TIME. OTHER PRECIPITATION CELLS ARE IN THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG ALSO COVER NICARAGUA FROM 12N TO EASTERN HONDURAS AND COASTAL WATERS AT 16N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W...AND IN NORTHERN BELIZE AND MEXICO/GUATEMALA FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 88W AND 90W. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING THROUGH HAITI DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE DRAGGING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH IT AT THIS TIME. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N79W BEYOND 32N75W. THE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN A TROUGH WHOSE BASE IS NEAR 30N77W AND THAT PASSES BEYOND 33N76W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 35N37W TO 28N74W...ACROSS FLORIDA TO 27N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 33N25W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 27N41W TO 26N58W TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 23N67W... FINALLY ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N55W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE ITCZ TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALSO IS DUE TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORMING/TRYING TO FORM NEAR 18N24W. $$ MT