000 AXNT20 KNHC 291055 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH NO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. A BROAD AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 36W-41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 36W-45W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A LOW-AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 52W-58W. THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 72W FROM THE HAITI TO FAR WRN VENEZUELA MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS UNDER UPPER SWLY FLOW AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THIS IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER NWRN VENEZUELA AND NRN COLOMBIA. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 9N19W 9N29W 10N32W 10N38W 8N42W 6N54W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE W AFRICA COAST FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 5W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 10N19W TO 6N28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW REMAINS POSITIONED OFF THE S TEXAS COAST COVERING THE NWRN GULF. AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SWLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES IS ADVECTING A DEEP LAYER OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC INTO THE REGION. THE DIFFLUENT PATTERN OF THIS FLOW IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 94W-98W. ONLY OTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO NOTE IS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE NERN GULF WATERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE US COASTLINE. AT THE SURFACE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE GULF MAINTAINING S-SE 10-15 KT RETURN FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF. CARIBBEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. DIVERGENCE ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 12N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-82W. DIVERGENT FLOW E OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN AND LEEWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO PROVIDE STRONG EASTERLY TRADES THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC... UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE W ATLC N OF 30N BETWEEN 76W-79W. SWLY UPPER FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 23N66W OVER THE W ATLC AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 13N53W EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ADVECTING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 53W. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY A VERY STABLE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STATIONARY 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 35N36W SW OF THE AZORES. THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ERN AND CENTRAL ATLC. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 13N53W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. $$ HUFFMAN