000 AXNT20 KNHC 281805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. SHOWERS FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 34W AND 38W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W SOUTH OF 19N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 21N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N72W AND TO 10N76W. A WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W/96W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO JUST WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 96W AND 97W. ...THE ITCZ... 12N15W 10N29W 5N45W 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 16W AND 20W MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WAVE NOT YET ON THE MAP ANALYSIS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 39W AND 51W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 56W AND 62W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS OVER MEXICO NEAR 26N104W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN AT LEAST 240 NM OF THE CENTER. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO SOUTHERN MEXICO JUST WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N T0 21N BETWEEN 96W AND 97W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WEST OF 90W OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN HONDURAS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N88W BEYOND 31N89W ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI/ ALABAMA BORDER. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 29N78W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N90W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 13N82W TO EASTERN HONDURAS AND BEYOND THE NORTH CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 21N66W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N72W TO 10N76W ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/ SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND NEAR THE ITCZ. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF 13N70W 18N66W BEYOND 19N65W. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE AT THIS MOMENT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ALSO OCCUPIED BY THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 29N TO 34N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W...IN THE AREA OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHOSE BASE IS NEAR 28N78W AND THAT PASSES BEYOND 32N76W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 35N37W TO 32N49W TO 29N71W...ACROSS FLORIDA ALONG 28N INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 33N25W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 27N40W TO 28N56W TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 21N66W...FINALLY ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA PASSING THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 12N55W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE ITCZ TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. $$ MT