000 AXNT20 KNHC 281054 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION. ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 6N-11N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A BROAD MID TO LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 31W-37W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. A SLIGHT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY CENTERED AROUND 9N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-10N. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W S OF 18N. THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT SUGGESTS THE WAVE POSITION WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS N CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS IN THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING AIDED BY AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W S OF 18N ACROSS SRN MEXICO. IT NOW LIES MAINLY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. HOWEVER...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS FOUND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N AND ACROSS SRN MEXICO. PLEASE SEE THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...TWDEP...FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS WAVE. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 11N25W 11N28W 9N36W 6N39W 4N45W 4N51W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 14W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 4N41W TO 8N47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NOTED WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WRN GULF AND A RIDGE OVER THE ERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS INDUCING SOUTHEASTERLY GULF RETURN FLOW INTO THE TEXAS COAST. AS A RESULT...DEEP SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE CENTRAL GULF AND IS HELPING TO SUPPLY MOISTURE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW... IN PRODUCING A LARGE SWATH OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST NEAR BILOXI MISSISSIPPI WITHIN THE REGION OF STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW FOUND BETWEEN 86W AND 94W. LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 93W-96W. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET WITH ONLY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN... STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 29N DOMINATES THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN IN THE CARIBBEAN. RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ARE SUPPRESSING CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF THE UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 67W IS GENERATING LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER...WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY OFF THE NRN VENEZUELA COAST BETWEEN 62W-68W. MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN N OF WRN PANAMA AND OFF THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA COAST WHERE DEEP MOISTURE IS MORE PLENTIFUL AND SPEED DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS PROVIDING LIFT. ATLANTIC... THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ATLC...WITH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS FOUND NORTH AND WEST OF 10N30W AND FLOW GENERALLY TURNING MORE N TO NE TO THE EAST OF THIS LOCATION. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 29N TO OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO IS ANCHORED BY A QUASI-STATIONARY 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N36W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS THE W ATLC. WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OFFSHORE OF NRN FLORIDA AND COASTAL GEORGIA FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 78W-80W. ELSEWHERE AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 13N52W EXTENDS A RIDGE NORTHWARD AND COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 23N27W AND IS PROVIDING AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. $$ HUFFMAN