000 AXNT20 KNHC 271705 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W S OF 14N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...HOWEVER...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 20W-26W. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED ALONG 36W S OF 12N. DAKAR UPPER AIR DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE WAVE MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST WED BUT...DUE TO LACK OF OBSERVATIONS AND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION... WENT UNNOTICED UNTIL EARLY THIS MORNING. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATES HAVE THE WAVE MOVING W 15-20 KT. A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...PARTICULARLY S OF 9N. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE AXIS TO 31W FROM 5N-8N. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. SFC OBSERVATIONS NEAR GEORGETOWN GUYANA SUGGEST THE WAVE PASSED THE STATION NEAR 12Z TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 89W S OF 22N MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP MOISTURE LAYER AND LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE E PACIFIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... BELIZE...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 10N24W 6N35W 5N43W AND INTO FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N53W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST TO 21W FROM 9N-13N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 26W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 25N93W. SWLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS ADVECTING A DEEP LAYER OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE ERN GULF...ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE W ATLC. THE DIFFLUENT NATURE OF THIS FLOW IS AIDING IN THE PRODUCTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGION. AN ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 88W-93W. THIS ACTIVITY IS INDUCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA TO CENTRAL MEXICO AND IS MAINTAINING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AS THE CREST OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W REMAIN IN THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 86W. DIVERGENCE AROUND AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N77W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W. FURTHER EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ERN HISPANIOLA SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD NRN COLOMBIA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS INHIBITING CONVECTION BETWEEN 70W-83W...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED ACTIVITY IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. AT THE SFC...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN STRONG TRADES THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. DIFFLUENT FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE W ATLC W OF 73W AND N OF 28N. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A VERY LARGE SFC RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH SE OF THE AZORES. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE PRODUCING A WIDE SWATH OF STRONG TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE N TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. $$ WADDINGTON