000 AXNT20 KNHC 271054 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W S OF 15N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 10N WITHIN 150 NM OF THE SRN HALF OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 10N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE POSITION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS SUGGESTED BY THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS AND PRIMARILY POSITIONED BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 54W-57W AND ALSO OVER SRN GUYANA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 21N MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA AT 10-15 KT. A BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 17N IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND PRIMARILY ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 13N20W 11N23W 5N40W TO S AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 13W-18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 19W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 30W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PINCHING OFF IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N93W. S TO SWLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A RIDGE TO ITS EAST CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE HATTERAS AND IS ADVECTING DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE ERN GULF ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE GULF E OF 93W. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 88W-92W. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC IS KEEPING A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF. THIS IS MAINTAINING LIGHT SE 10-15 KT WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO RE-DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF FRI AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW IS STAGNANT TO MOVE MUCH AND REMAIN OVER THE WRN GULF WATERS. CARIBBEAN... A TROPICAL WAVE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA IS YIELDING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH THE REGION OF STRONGEST CONVECTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SIMILAR SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER ERN HONDURAS... NICARAGUA AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. THIS CONVECTION IS SUPPORTED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 75W. TO THE EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ERN HISPANIOLA SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD NRN COLOMBIA. MID TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS AIDING IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. IN ADDITION...A ZONAL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE ATLC CENTERED ALONG 30N COUPLED WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER NRN SOUTH AMERICA IS PROVIDING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ACCOMPANYING STRONG EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND INTO THE W ATLC. DIVERGENCE ALONG THE NRN EXTENT OF THIS RIDGE IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC N OF 27N AND W OF 73W. FURTHER EAST A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE N ATLC EXTENDS BROAD TROUGHING SWD TO NEAR 22N BETWEEN 45W-65W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 37N32W SW OF THE AZORES. A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE PRODUCING A WIDE SWATH OF STRONG TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE N TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ HUFFMAN