000 AXNT20 KNHC 270552 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC LIES ALONG 20W/21W S OF 15N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS AND LIKELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 11N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE POSITION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS SUGGESTED BY THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS AND PRIMARILY POSITIONED BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE FOUND OVER SURINAME AND FRENCH GUIANA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W S OF 21N MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA AT 10-15 KT. A BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 17N IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND PRIMARILY ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE WAVE OVER BELIZE...WRN HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 10N19W 9N23W 4N40W TO S AMERICA NEAR 6N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-32W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 33W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PINCHING OFF IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N93W. S TO SWLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A RIDGE TO ITS EAST CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD CAPE HATTERAS AND IS ADVECTING DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE ERN GULF ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE GULF E OF 92W. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC IS KEEPING A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF. THIS IS MAINTAINING LIGHT SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE GULF OVERNIGHT. CARIBBEAN... A TROPICAL WAVE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA IS YIELDING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE REGION OF STRONGEST CONVECTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SIMILAR SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE ERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA COASTLINE N OF 11N AND W OF 82W. THIS CONVECTION IS SUPPORTED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW WEDGED BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE UPPER LOW IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. TO THE EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ERN HISPANIOLA SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD NRN COLOMBIA. MID TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS AIDING IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. IN ADDITION...A ZONAL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE ATLC CENTERED ALONG 29N COUPLED WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER NRN SOUTH AMERICA IS PROVIDING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ACCOMPANYING STRONG EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND INTO THE W ATLC. DIVERGENCE ALONG THE NRN EXTENT OF THIS RIDGE IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 74W-81W MAINLY OFFSHORE OF NRN FLORIDA AND COASTAL GEORGIA. FURTHER EAST A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE N ATLC EXTENDS BROAD TROUGHING TO NEAR 23N BETWEEN 45W-55W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 32N49W. A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE PRODUCING A WIDE SWATH OF STRONG TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE N TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ HUFFMAN