000 AXNT20 KNHC 261054 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 10N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WEAK INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHILE THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY SMALL LOW-AMPLITUDE BULGE OF MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 49W-54W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS UP VERY WELL ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER WHERE A NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE MAXIMUM IS OBSERVED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE W OF THE WAVE AXIS MAINLY SOUTH OF 18N ACROSS ERN HONDURAS/NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH FRI ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 6N30W 3N44W 4N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 16W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 8N43W TO 9N50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIE OVER THE GULF STRETCHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA AREA IN LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE W ATLC TO OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS. SWLY UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IS SUPPLYING THE E GULF AND FLORIDA WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. THESE DIFFLUENT UPPER WINDS ARE ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SERN GULF WATERS. LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SERN GULF E OF 91W AND S OF 27N. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER NRN FLORIDA AND THE NRN GULF WITH A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N69W. UNDER THIS PATTERN...E TO SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF WITH A NARROW BAND OF 15-20 KT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS ACROSS HONDURAS/NICARAGUA AND WRN CUBA INTO THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 30N75W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH REMAINS BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED FROM NRN SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. UPPER DIFFLUENCE COUPLED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W MENTIONED ABOVE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM WRN PANAMA TO HONDURAS AS WELL AS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 82W-88W INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS. CONVECTION IS ALSO LOCATED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA OFFSHORE OF WRN PANAMA AND ERN COSTA RICA DUE MAINLY IN PART TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ATLANTIC... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS WRN CUBA TO OVER THE NW BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLC W OF 70W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 50W-60W EXTENDS TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 24N60W. TROUGHING THEN EXTENDS SW AND ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED TSTMS ARE IN THE WEST CENTRAL ATLC WITHIN 90 NM E OF A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA FROM 32N59W TO NEAR 29N65W. LARGE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 32N42W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N28W TO 21N42W. UPPER HIGH IS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N53W WITH THE RIDGE COVERING THE ERN CARIBBEAN TO THE WEST. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS OVER MOROCCO EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC FORECAST AREA ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N54W. A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WHICH IS ALSO PRODUCING A WIDE SWATH OF MODERATE TO STRONG ELY FLOW ACROSS THE N TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ HUFFMAN