000 AXNT20 KNHC 242340 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 6N. THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION SHOWS A SMALL BULGE OF MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS PARTICULARLY NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AND THE ITCZ. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE FRI INTO SAT. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 73W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COUPLED WITH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA AS WELL AS OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA. OBSERVATIONS AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATE THAT A WIND SURGE OF 20 TO 25 KT FOLLOWS THIS WAVE. MOISTURE FROM THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA TONIGHT...AND CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EARLY WED. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ALONG 96W IS NOW OVER THE EPAC ALONG 97W. BROAD CYCLONIC ROTATION IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WITH A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. SEE THE TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION EASTERN PACIFIC...TWDEP. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N13W 7N25W 6N40W 5N50W INTO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE MOVING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST COVERING THE AREA FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 13W-18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER THE GUYANAS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 18W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH LIES OVER THE GULF STRETCHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC TO OVER THE NW BAHAMAS. SWLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE SUPPLYING THE E GULF AND FLORIDA WITH ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE A SFC TROUGH WAS ANALYZED AT 21Z. LIGHTNING DATA REVEALS SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...OVER THE E GULF IN THE VICINITY OF 26N86W AND ACROSS THE STATE OF FLORIDA. ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE GULF WITH A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N84W. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS PROVIDING MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A NARROW BAND OF 15-20 KT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF. CARIBBEAN... A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE BASIN. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS ACROSS HONDURAS OVER W/CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER TROUGH IS BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES EXTENDING FROM ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...AND IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE BLOWING ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ATLANTIC... NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS W/CENTRAL CUBA TO OVER THE NW BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLC W OF 70W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 31N35W THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 21N45W. AT THIS POINT...THE TROUGH EXTENDS W AND THEN NW TO ANOTHER COLD LOW LOCATED NEAR 25N65W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH... THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE TROPICS FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN FROM AFRICA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N55W. A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WHICH IS ALSO PRODUCING A WIDE SWATH OF MODERATE TO STRONG ELY FLOW ACROSS THE N TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE SW AND SLIGHTLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ GR