000 AXNT20 KNHC 241051 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK INVERTED-V CURVATURE IN THE MID LEVELS. THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION CONTINUES TO SHOW A SURGE IN MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS ALONG 71W S OF 20N. WAVE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS APPEARS TO BE MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD INVERTED-V CURVATURE BETWEEN 65W AND 73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE WAVE FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA ARE IN THE THE DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW JUST TO THE E OF AN UPPER TROUGH. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 95W S OF 21N MOVING W 20-25 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE MOVING OVER S MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 93W-97W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 5N35W 10N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 8N56W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 12N64W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 51W-56W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ FROM 41W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE E US INTO THE W/CENTRAL GULF NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA TO S MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE ANCHORED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS APPROACHING THE COASTLINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC TO OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. THIS IS SUPPLYING THE E GULF WITH ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE ACTIVITY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IS ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E GULF FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 83W-87W WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY N OF 27 TO THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AND W OF 93W TO INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER TEXAS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE GULF AND CREATING A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. CARIBBEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS ACROSS HONDURAS OVER W/CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE AREA N OF 12N W OF 81W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER TROUGH IS BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES EXTENDING FROM ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR THE E CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO 12N79W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-15N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY N OF 17N W OF 74W. THE ITCZ CROSSES THE S CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC OVER THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA S OF 10N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND IS ENHANCE BY THE UPPER TROUGH/RIDGE. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ATLANTIC... NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS W/CENTRAL CUBA TO OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO NEAR 26N78W PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND CONTINUING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N W OF 77W INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A BROADER UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE N/CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 32N59W AGAIN PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 71W-77W. OTHERWISE THE MOST PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE REMAINS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM 28N27W THROUGH 21N43W 24N61W THEN SW INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR E CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE ACTIVITY JUST N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN FROM AFRICA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N53W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY STABLE AIR ALSO DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 70W GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ENHANCING ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WIDE SWATH OF AFRICAN DUST TRANSVERSING THE ATLC S OF 22N FROM AFRICA INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. $$ WALLACE