000 AXNT20 KNHC 232354 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IS SEEN ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 6N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS BUT MAINLY NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AXIS AND THE ITCZ. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO E VENEZUELA. ITS AXIS IS ALONG 62W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THE WAVE IS GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS...SCATTERED TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KT BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. EXPECT THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE WAVE IS HELPING TO INDUCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER E-CENTRAL VENEZUELA. MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE WILL REACH DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY TUE AND EASTERN CUBA EARLY WED. ACCORDING TO THE COMPUTER MODEL...THE WAVE MAY AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA LATE WED INTO THU. OBSERVATIONS E OF THE WAVE AND FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE E INDICATE THAT A WIND SURGE OF 20 TO 25 KT FOLLOWS THIS WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SE MEXICO ENHANCING SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY THERE. ITS AXIS IS ALONG 91W/92W. PART OF THIS WAVE ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS THE EPAC WHERE IS GENERATING SCATTERED DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 8N25W 6N34W 5N40W 5N50W INTO FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER GUINEA BISSAU AFRICA AND OVER N SOUTH AMERICA PARTICULARLY OVER SURINAME. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 18W-31W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N AXIS BETWEEN 44W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SE MEXICO. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR DETAILS. A RIDGE EXTENDS WWD FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF REGION WITH A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 28N89W. UNDER THIS WEATHER PATTERN...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF REGION. ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE E GULF NEAR 25N86W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN... AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE INTERACTING WITH A COLD LOW N OF THE AREA...CENTERED NEAR 27N61W WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH ORIENTED FROM SE TO NW. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED DISORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...FROM THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES WESTWARD THROUGH HISPANIOLA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ARE AFFECTING PARTS OF CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE ANOTHER RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH JUST E OF BARBADOS COVERS N SOUTH AMERICA AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN BETWEEN...THERE IS A TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. ATLANTIC... THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN FLORIDA IS MOVING INTO THE FAR WESTERN ATLC. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CAN BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST REGION SOUTH OF THE 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED NEAR 32N50W. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THIS AREA. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS MAINLY E-W ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC FROM AN UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 28N27W TO ANOTHER LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N61W. SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH LIES A RIDGE WHICH COVERS MOST OF THE TROPICS. DIFFLUENT AROUND THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ. OF NOTE...THE WEEK OF JUNE 22-28 HAS BEEN DESIGNATED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AS LIGHTNING AWARENESS WEEK. FLORIDIANS ARE WELL AWARE OF THE DANGERS POSED BY LIGHTNING, AS FLORIDA TYPICALLY LEADS THE NATION IN LIGHTNING STRIKES AND DEATHS CAUSED BY LIGHTNING. THE MAIN THING TO REMEMBER REGARDING LIGHTNING SAFETY IS: GO INDOORS! BEGIN OUTSIDE IS NEVER SAFE DURING A THUNDERSTORM!. $$ GR