000
AXNT20 KNHC 221804
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 43W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST
25 TO 30 KT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS IN CLOUDS 
WITH POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 
40W AND 50W. THE LATEST MIMIC-TPW DATA SHOW THE MOISTURE FIELD
WITH THIS WAVE QUITE WELL.

WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W/82W SOUTH OF 21N
MOVING 20 TO 25 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 
SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 11N TO COASTAL NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS 
NEAR 16N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS...
DISSIPATING WITH TIME...WERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 18N TO
WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N/23N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. THIS PRECIPITATION
WAS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.

...THE ITCZ...

10N14W 5N20W 4N31W 2N37W 4N42W 6N45W 5N54W IN FRENCH GUIANA.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 22W AND 36W...AND
FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ARKANSAS TO THE 
UPPER TEXAS COAST TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ONE 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W
TO A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N87W TO 26N91W. A SECOND 
TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ALONG 24N93W
21N94W 18N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 26N IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN
81W IN FLORIDA AND 95W. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO WITHIN
A 60 NM RADIUS OF 21N94W. REMNANT PRECIPITATION MAY BE LINGERING
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 23N WEST OF 90W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF 
THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA FROM AN ATLANTIC 
OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 22N62W TO A CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 15N75W. UPPER LEVEL 
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CUTS ACROSS THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF THE 
LINE 11N80W 15N70W 17N60W. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W/82W IS
BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THE TROPICAL 
WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 43W IS MOVING WEST 25 TO 30 KT. EXPECT
THAT WAVE TO REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS OR SO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 35N17W NORTH OF THE AZORES ISLANDS...
TO 29N28W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 25N41W TO A THIRD
CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 22N62W...CURVING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
SEA TO A FOURTH CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 15N75W.

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